National Climate Scientist (SSA) - Roster Call

Background:
The Kyrgyz Republic, as the “water tower” of Central Asia, holds nearly 8,000 glaciers and thousands of high-altitude moraine-dammed lakes whose breaches can generate catastrophic debris flows. Since 1952, more than 60 dangerous lake outbursts have been recorded in the country. Ongoing glacier retreat and permafrost degradation accelerate the emergence and expansion of such lakes, increasing the probability of sudden breaches under extreme precipitation or thermal stress.
The Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Kyrgyz Republic (MoES) operates an AI-driven GLOF monitoring system based on optical satellite data; it successfully forecast the outbursts of Lakes Zyndan-Western (2024) and Takyr-Tor (2025). However, the system does not yet incorporate localized climate scenarios, geomorphological breach-probability indicators or spatially explicit inundation hazard mapping.
The OSCE Programme Office in Bishkek (POiB), in close cooperation with MoES, is implementing the project “Assessment of Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Risks in Priority Mountain Areas of Kyrgyzstan” (June 2026 – December 2027). The project is structured in two phases: Phase 1 (2026) — technical enhancement of the existing MoES monitoring system, aerial surveys, hazard mapping and pilot early warning frameworks; Phase 2 (2027) — field validation at 10 pilot lakes, procurement and installation of automated monitoring equipment, and operationalization of community early warning systems.
To deliver the project, POiB will contract national consultants on a Special Service Agreement (SSA) modality. The present Terms of Reference (ToR) define the duties, deliverables and time schedule of the consultant.
 

Objective of Assignment: 
To select, downscale and operationalize localized CMIP6 climate ensembles for the Chu and Issyk-Kul river basins; produce climate-driven scenario inputs for glacier-melt and runoff projections that feed the enhanced MoES GLOF monitoring system and build national capacity to operate the scenario simulation tool.

Tasks and Responsibilities:

1. Inception meeting with POiB and HMFD MoES; review of existing MoES GLOF monitoring system architecture; compilation of available hydrometeorological observation records for the Chu and Issyk-Kul river basins; preparation of inception note describing data inventory and downscaling methodology.

2. Selection of CMIP6 global climate model ensembles (≥3 models) representative of Central Asian mountain climates; statistical/dynamical downscaling to 5 km resolution for the Chu and Issyk-Kul basins for the 2030 and 2050 horizons; bias-correction against Kyrgyzhydromet station data.

3. Generation of glacier-melt and runoff projections for priority watersheds feeding moraine-dammed lakes; preparation of ≥5 scenario simulations (RCP/SSP combinations × time horizons); documentation of key climatic triggers relevant to GLOF generation (extreme precipitation, heatwaves, freeze–thaw cycles).

4. Joint sessions with the Modelling Expert to feed climate projections into hydrodynamic breach scenarios (Activity 1.3); preparation of Module 1 “Climate Scenario Modelling” training materials; delivery of hands-on training to up to 20 HMFD MoES technical staff; participation in the Technical Working Group meeting.

5. Update of climate inputs based on the latest CMIP6 model releases and new station data; integration of climate projections into updated hydrodynamic models for the 10 field-surveyed pilot lakes (Activity 2.3); peer review of climate-related sections in the field validation reports.

6. Preparation of the final climate-modelling technical report; participation in the project closure workshop; formal handover of all datasets, scripts and documentation to MoES; knowledge-transfer session with HMFD specialists.
    

Deliverables:
 

1. Inception note (EN/RU); data inventory matrix.

2. Downscaled CMIP6 datasets (NetCDF) for ≥3 ensembles; downscaling methodology report (EN/RU).

3. Scenario simulation archive; technical report on climate triggers (EN/RU).

4. Module 1 training package (slides, exercises, datasets) in EN/RU; training delivery report with pre-/post-test results.

5. Updated climate scenario dataset; contributions to field validation report.

6. Final climate modelling report (EN/RU); handover package.
    

For more detailed information on the structure and work of the OSCE Programme Office in Bishkek, please see: OSCE Programme Office in Bishkek

Necessary Qualifications:

• Advanced university degree (Master’s or PhD) in climatology, atmospheric sciences, hydrometeorology, physical geography or a closely related discipline;

• Minimum 5 years of professional experience in climate modelling and/or downscaling of global climate models for Central Asia or comparable mountain regions;

• Demonstrated experience with CMIP5/CMIP6 datasets and at least one statistical or dynamical downscaling technique (e.g. WRF, RegCM, bias-correction methods);

• Working knowledge of mountain-cryosphere processes (glacier mass balance, snowmelt, permafrost) and their links to GLOF generation;

• Proven training and capacity-building experience with national institutions;

• Fluency in Russian and good working knowledge of English; knowledge of Kyrgyz is an asset;

• Familiarity with OSCE or comparable international-organization procedures is an asset;

• Previous experience of conducting research, data collection and analysis would be an asset;

• Professional fluency in the Russian and Kyrgyz, both oral and written;

• Demonstrated gender awareness and sensitivity, and an ability to integrate a gender perspective into tasks and activities;

• Ability and willingness to work as a member of team, with people of different cultural, and religious backgrounds, different gender, and diverse political views, while maintaining impartiality and objectivity;

• Computer literate with practical experience using Microsoft applications.

Remuneration Package:

Remuneration will be based on the selected consultant's/expert's qualifications, experience, the tasks and deliverables for this position and in accordance with the OSCE established rates.

If you wish to apply for this position, please use the OSCE's online application link found under https://vacancies.osce.org/.

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Only those candidates who are selected to participate in the subsequent stages of recruitment will be contacted.

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